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August 2019
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Atlantic Tropical Storm Activity
...DORIAN MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD... ...WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 24 the center of Dorian was located near 10.9, -50.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Find more about Weather in Tampa, FL
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Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Outlook Image
NHC Atlantic
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 242313
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dorian, located several hundred miles east-southeast of
the Lesser Antilles.

A trough of low pressure extending from the coast of south-central
Florida northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred
miles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical or
subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
system moves northeastward over the Atlantic, offshore of the
southeastern United States coast. Interests along the coasts of
South and North Carolina should continue to monitor the progress
of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Satellite and surface observations show that the trough of low
pressure over the far northwestern Gulf of Mexico has moved inland
over the Upper Texas coast and western Louisiana. Although further
development of this system is not expected, it will likely bring
locally heavy rains to portions of Louisiana and eastern Texas
during the next day or two. See products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for additional information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Dorian are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Dorian
are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Tropical Storm Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
...DORIAN MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD... ...WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 24 the center of Dorian was located near 10.9, -50.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019

000
WTNT35 KNHC 250247
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019

...DORIAN MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD...
...WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 50.4W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of Dorian.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 50.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). The tropical storm is
forecast to move generally west-northwestward at a similar forward
speed for the next several days. On the forecast track, Dorian is
expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the
central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019

000
WTNT25 KNHC 250246
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019
0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N  50.4W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N  50.4W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N  49.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.2N  52.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.7N  54.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.5N  56.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.2N  58.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.0N  62.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 17.0N  66.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.0N  70.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N  50.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 

Tropical Storm Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 250248
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019

Dorian's structure hasn't changed substantially since the last
advisory. Although southeasterly shear and surrounding dry air
appear to be limiting convection, the most recent available
microwave imagery showed that the small cyclone is maintaining
well-defined convective banding. The initial intensity is still
35 kt, based primarily on the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix.

Confidence in the intensity forecast is particularly low due to a
number of factors. The small size of Dorian could make it
susceptible to large short-term swings in intensity (up or down).
While SHIPS diagnostics suggest that the wind shear will be below 10
kt for at least the next 72 h, UW-CIMSS shear diagnostics indicate
that the current shear is higher, more like 15-20 kt. And the
intensity guidance spread is also notably large, further decreasing
confidence in the forecast. For now, the NHC intensity forecast has
not been significantly changed, and shows Dorian near hurricane
strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles in a few days. This
is a little above the intensity consensus and it should be stressed
that it is still too soon to pinpoint potential wind impacts across
those islands, given the large uncertainty in the forecast. The
official forecast then shows Dorian maintaining hurricane strength
across the northeast Caribbean, but it is certainly possible that it
could be weaker, especially given the expected surrounding dry
environment and a possible increase in wind shear forecast by the
GFS and ECMWF models. By the end of the forecast period, the NHC
intensity forecast is very close to HCCA and IVCN.

An ASCAT-B overpass at 0024 UTC revealed that Dorian is moving
slightly faster than previously estimated, now 280/12 kt. Unlike the
intensity guidance, the track models are in quite good agreement on
the track of Dorian. The tropical storm should continue moving
westward to west-northwestward at a similar forward speed, steered
primarily by a mid-level ridge stretching across most of the central
Atlantic. The NHC forecast is nearly on top of the previous advisory
and remains very near the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Key Messages:
1. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and could be near hurricane
strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of
impacts in the Lesser Antilles, but tropical storm or hurricane
watches will likely be needed for a portion of the islands on
Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 10.9N  50.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 11.2N  52.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 11.7N  54.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 12.5N  56.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 13.2N  58.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 15.0N  62.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 17.0N  66.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 19.0N  70.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Tropical Storm Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019

000
FONT15 KNHC 250247
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052019               
0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  18(20)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  30(34)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  29(35)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)  13(38)
PONCE PR       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)
PONCE PR       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)  15(35)
AGUADILLA PR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
AGUADILLA PR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   9(28)
SAN JUAN PR    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)
SAN JUAN PR    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  36(39)   6(45)
VIEQUES PR     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   4(16)
VIEQUES PR     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  29(33)   5(38)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  37(43)   4(47)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   2(16)
SAINT CROIX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  16(27)   2(29)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  20(35)   1(36)
SABA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   X(11)
SABA           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  18(35)   1(36)
ST EUSTATIUS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   X(11)
ST EUSTATIUS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)  16(36)   1(37)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   X(11)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   8(25)   X(25)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)  10(33)   X(33)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  35(37)   7(44)   X(44)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   3(14)   X(14)
GUADELOUPE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  29(29)  33(62)   2(64)
AVES           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  19(27)   X(27)
AVES           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  48(51)   6(57)   X(57)
DOMINICA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)   4(25)   X(25)
DOMINICA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  52(56)   3(59)   X(59)
MARTINIQUE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)   2(27)   X(27)
MARTINIQUE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  46(50)   2(52)   X(52)
SAINT LUCIA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)   1(22)   X(22)
SAINT LUCIA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  33(35)   2(37)   X(37)
SAINT VINCENT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
SAINT VINCENT  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)  28(48)   X(48)   X(48)
BARBADOS       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)   X(17)   X(17)
BARBADOS       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GRENADA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)   X(13)
GRENADA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
JUANGRIEGO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 

Tropical Storm Dorian Graphics
Tropical Storm Dorian 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 02:49:58 GMT

Tropical Storm Dorian 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 03:24:35 GMT

Latest Position