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777
ABNT20 KNHC 161141
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Ernesto located several hundred miles southeast of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

A tropical wave located about 750 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Some gradual development of this system
is possible over the next couple of days while it moves west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the Windward Islands. By late
Saturday, unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the
chances for additional development while the system moves over
the eastern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is
likely to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser
Antilles during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

...ERNESTO HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 42.0, -43.2 with movement NE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

168 
WTNT35 KNHC 161451
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

...ERNESTO HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.0N 43.2W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto
was located near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 43.2 West.  The
storm is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A
significantly faster northeastward motion is expected during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days.  Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone
tonight or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone as it
approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom late Saturday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) primarily to
the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 16 2018

169 
WTNT25 KNHC 161451
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052018
1500 UTC THU AUG 16 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.0N  43.2W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  35 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE 170SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.0N  43.2W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.6N  43.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.9N  40.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.7N  35.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 49.5N  28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 150SE 120SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 52.0N  19.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 150SE 120SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.0N  43.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

219 
WTNT45 KNHC 161452
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

Convection developed closer to the center of Ernesto early this
morning, suggesting that the system was attempting to make the
transition to a tropical cyclone, but that area of convection has
weakened within the past couple of hours.  Patches of deep
convection continue over the outer portion of the circulation, and
a very recent ASCAT overpass continues to show a rather large radius
of maximum winds, indicating that Ernesto remains a subtropical
cyclone.  The ASCAT data showed a large area of 35-40 kt winds over
the eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation, so the
initial wind speed has been increased to 40 kt.

Ernesto has likely reached its peak intensity since it will be
moving over much cooler SSTs later today, and the cyclone is
expected to lose its subtropical characteristics late tonight or
early Friday.  The post-tropical cyclone should be able to maintain
its intensity due in part to its expected fast forward speed over
the North Atlantic.  The global models indicate that the system will
merge with a frontal zone as it approaches Ireland and the United
Kingdom late Saturday.

Ernesto has turned northeastward and is beginning to accelerate,
and is now moving at around 14 kt.  The cyclone should be fully
embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies within the next 24
hours, and a significantly faster northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days.
The track guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new
NHC official forecast is essentially an update of the previous
advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 42.0N  43.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 43.9N  40.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 46.7N  35.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  18/0000Z 49.5N  28.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  18/1200Z 52.0N  19.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 16 2018

087 
FONT15 KNHC 161452
PWSAT5
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052018               
1500 UTC THU AUG 16 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 42.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 14:53:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 15:22:07 GMT