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NHC Atlantic |
| Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 201145
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jose, located a couple of hundred miles south of Nantucket,
Massachusetts, and on extremely dangerous Hurricane Maria, located
over Puerto Rico.
Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized
during the past several hours in association with the remnants of
Lee, located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Although
environmental conditions are marginal for development, only a small
increase in the overall organization of the system would result in
the regeneration of Lee. This low is expected to move northward
over the central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
&&
Additional information on the remnants of Lee can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)
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...JOSE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...
As of 8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 20
the center of Jose was located near 38.8, -70.2
with movement NE at 8 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 976 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 60A
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Issued at 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017
000
WTNT32 KNHC 201144
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 60A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017
...JOSE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG
A LARGE PORTION OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.8N 70.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 70.2 West. Jose is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue
through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is
expected to pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast today, and
pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure based on Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft data is 976 mb (28.82 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area later today.
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of
the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous
surf and rip current conditions during the next several days in
these areas. For more information, please consult products from
your local weather office.
RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Thursday:
Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod...1 to 2 inches.
Nantucket...2 to 4 inches.
These rainfall totals could cause isolated flash flooding.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Advisory Number 60
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Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017
000
WTNT22 KNHC 200840
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 60
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE COAST OF
LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH... INCLUDING CAPE COD
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 70.3W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 70.3W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 70.6W
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 39.1N 69.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.6N 68.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.5N 67.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.2N 68.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 150SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 38.9N 69.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 120SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 39.2N 69.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 39.5N 68.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.4N 70.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 60
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Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017
000
WTNT42 KNHC 200842
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 60
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017
Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery shows considerable decay of
yesterday afternoon's burst of deep convection near Jose's center.
An earlier GPM low-frequency microwave overpass revealed that the
strongest convection and associated winds were located in the north
and west periphery of of the cyclone's circulation, a wind pattern
indicative of non-tropical systems. Based on the deteriorating
cloud pattern and a blend of the latest subjective T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt. Jose has
begun its movement north of the Gulf Stream's north wall and over
decreasing oceanic temperatures. Subsequent CIMSS shear analysis
and the SHIPS model indicate modest southwesterly shear undercutting
the outflow aloft. These inhibiting factors should result in
additional weakening, and the official forecast calls for Jose to
become a post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours, if not sooner.
The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 040/7 kt.
There is no significant change to the previous track forecast or
philosophy. The large-scale models continue to agree on Jose
decreasing in forward speed and gradually turning toward the east on
Thursday morning in response to a mid-tropospheric shortwave trough
moving eastward out of the eastern Canadian provinces. Through
the remainder of the forecast period, high pressure is expected to
build over the northeast U.S. and adjacent waters, causing Jose to
drift southward and southwestward through the 72 hour period. After
that time, the cyclone is expected to basically meander in the
northwest Atlantic within the weak steering flow produced by the
aforementioned high pressure to the northwest of the cyclone and a
building mid-level ridge to the southeast. The NHC forecast a
little slower at days 4 and 5 and closely follows the GFS/ECMWF
(GFEX) consensus and the forecast input from NOAA Ocean Prediction
Center.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning
is in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and
Nantucket.
2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days. Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.
3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and
much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.
4. Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of
1 to 2 inches over Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod, and 2 to 4 inches
in Nantucket as it passes offshore today into Thursday. This
rainfall could cause isolated flash flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 38.4N 70.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 39.1N 69.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 39.6N 68.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 39.5N 67.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 39.2N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 23/0600Z 38.9N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/0600Z 39.2N 69.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/0600Z 39.5N 68.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 60
|
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017
000
FONT12 KNHC 200841
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 60
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
38.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
YARMOUTH NS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 2(11)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9)
AUGUSTA ME 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9)
PORTLAND ME 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 2(14)
CONCORD NH 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 2(13) 2(15)
PORTSMOUTH NH 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 2(14) 3(17) 2(19)
WORCESTER MA 34 8 3(11) 3(14) 2(16) 4(20) 2(22) 1(23)
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 5 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 3(16) 3(19) 1(20)
BOSTON MA 34 9 5(14) 3(17) 2(19) 4(23) 3(26) 1(27)
HYANNIS MA 34 26 9(35) 5(40) 3(43) 4(47) 4(51) 1(52)
HYANNIS MA 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 43 10(53) 4(57) 3(60) 3(63) 3(66) X(66)
NANTUCKET MA 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 16 6(22) 4(26) 2(28) 5(33) 4(37) 1(38)
BRIDGEPORT CT 34 8 3(11) 2(13) 3(16) 4(20) 3(23) 1(24)
NEW HAVEN CT 34 8 4(12) 2(14) 2(16) 4(20) 4(24) X(24)
HARTFORD CT 34 8 3(11) 2(13) 3(16) 4(20) 2(22) 1(23)
NEW LONDON CT 34 14 5(19) 3(22) 2(24) 5(29) 3(32) 2(34)
ALBANY NY 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
POUGHKEEPSIE 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 1(13)
MONTAUK POINT 34 22 5(27) 3(30) 3(33) 5(38) 4(42) 1(43)
ISLIP NY 34 10 3(13) 2(15) 3(18) 4(22) 4(26) 1(27)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 7 2( 9) 2(11) 2(13) 4(17) 2(19) 1(20)
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 4(14) 3(17) 1(18)
NEWARK NJ 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 4(13) 2(15) 1(16)
TRENTON NJ 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13)
NWS EARLE NJ 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 4(15) 2(17) 2(19)
ALLENTOWN PA 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
PHILADELPHIA 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 1(11)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 4(13) 2(15) 1(16)
DOVER DE 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 2(12)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 2(11)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
WALLOPS CDA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8)
NORFOLK VA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Jose Graphics
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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 11:47:42 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 09:23:44 GMT
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Local Statement for Boston, MA
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Issued at 513 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017
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Local Statement for New York City, NY
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Issued at 531 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017
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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
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...1000 AM AST POSITION UPDATE... ...CENTER OF MARIA OVER NORTHERN PUERTO RICO...
As of 10:00 AM AST Wed Sep 20
the center of Maria was located near 18.4, -66.4
with movement NW at 13 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 928 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
|
Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 17A
|
Issued at 800 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017
000
WTNT35 KNHC 201156
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
800 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017
...EYE OF MARIA LOCATED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 66.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...30 KM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of France has changed the Hurricane Watch for St.
Martin and St. Barthelemy to a Tropical Storm Warning.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 66.1 West. Maria is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest to
northwest motion is expected to continue through today, followed by
a northwestward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the eye
of Maria will continue to move across Puerto Rico this morning and
emerge off the northern coast by this afternoon. The center will
then pass just north of the northeast coast of the Dominican
Republic tonight and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Maria is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and it is forecast to retain
this intensity while it moves across Puerto Rico.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km). A sustained wind of 81 mph (130 km/h) with a gust
to 109 mph (175 km/h) was recently reported at Yabucoa Harbor,
Puerto Rico. A sustained wind of 63 mph (101 km/h) with a gust to
118 mph (190 km/h) was recently reported at Camp Santiago, Puerto
Rico.
A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Yabucoa Harbor recently
reported a water level of 5.3 ft above Mean Higher High Water.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 921 mb (27.20 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Hurricane conditions are
expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Dominican Republic
tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by later today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
areas in the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane conditions
are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late Thursday in
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, with
tropical storm conditions in this area by early Thursday.
Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.
A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal
tide levels in the hurricane warning area near and to the north of
the center of Maria for both the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks
and Caicos Islands.
RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday:
Central Leeward Islands...additional 1 to 2 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...additional 2 to
5 inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 8 to 12 inches,
isolated 16 inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic and Turks and Caicos...4 to
8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Northern Haiti and southeastern Bahamas...2 to 4 inches.
Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.
TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands today.
THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane
passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the
eye moves away.
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells will begin
affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
|
Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 17
|
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017
000
WTNT25 KNHC 200856
TCMAT5
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA... AND VIEQUES
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA
* ST. MAARTEN
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 65.6W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 917 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 65.6W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 65.1W
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.6N 66.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 68.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.5N 69.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.2N 72.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.3N 73.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 30.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 65.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
|
Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 17
|
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017
000
WTNT45 KNHC 200858
TCDAT5
Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017
Radar observations from the San Juan WSR-88D and wind data from an
Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Maria has just about completed an eyewall replacement. Based on
the now-dominant outer eyewall, the eye diameter has increased from
10 n mi to 30 n mi. This has likely contributed to some weakening,
and based on the latest observations from the Hurricane Hunters, the
intensity is set at 135 kt which is at the top of category 4 range.
Although there has been a slight reduction of intensity, Maria
remains an extremely dangerous hurricane. Some weakening is
likely while the system crosses Puerto Rico. Later in the forecast
period, less favorable upper-level winds should cause further
weakening, but Maria is likely to remain a large and powerful
hurricane for the next 5 days. The official intensity forecast is
near or a little above the model consensus.
Maria continues to move between west-northwest and northwest at
about 9 kt. The flow on the south side of a weak mid-level ridge
over the western Atlantic is expected to steer the hurricane on this
general heading over the next couple of days. This track will bring
the center of Maria across Puerto Rico and just north of the eastern
Dominican Republic over the next day or so. After that time a
break in the ridge, partially associated with Tropical Storm Jose,
should cause Maria to turn north-northwestward, then northward by
the end of the forecast period. The track guidance remains tightly
clustered through 72 hours, giving fairly high confidence in the
track forecast through that time. There is some increase in the
spread of the models at days 4 and 5, with the latest ECMWF
prediction near the western edge of the guidance envelope but with
all of the reliable models well offshore of the southeast U.S. at
the end of the period. The official forecast is very close to the
latest FSU Superensemble track.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Maria's core will make landfall over Puerto Rico within the
next couple of hours, bringing life-threatening wind, storm surge,
and rainfall impacts to the island. Everyone in Puerto Rico should
follow advice from local officials to avoid life-threatening
flooding from storm surge and rainfall.
2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory.
3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the Virgin Islands,
the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected
to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 17.9N 65.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 18.6N 66.7W 125 KT 145 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/0600Z 19.5N 68.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 20.5N 69.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 21.5N 70.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 24.2N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 27.3N 73.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 30.5N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
|
Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
|
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017
000
FONT15 KNHC 200857
PWSAT5
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2017
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) 1(22)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 31(35) 13(48) 1(49)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 34(63) 3(66) X(66)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 2(32) X(32)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) X(17)
GRAND TURK 34 1 5( 6) 38(44) 41(85) 9(94) X(94) X(94)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 12(12) 45(57) 15(72) 1(73) X(73)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 20(53) X(53) X(53)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15)
CAPE BEATA 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13)
PUERTO PLATA 34 2 15(17) 45(62) 11(73) 3(76) 1(77) X(77)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X 3( 3) 18(21) 12(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 3 36(39) 14(53) 3(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 1 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
SANTO DOMINGO 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
PONCE PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PONCE PR 50 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PONCE PR 64 69 2(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
AGUADILLA PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
AGUADILLA PR 50 94 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
AGUADILLA PR 64 57 22(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
SAN JUAN PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAN JUAN PR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAN JUAN PR 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
VIEQUES PR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
VIEQUES PR 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
VIEQUES PR 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT THOMAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT THOMAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT THOMAS 64 45 X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT CROIX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT CROIX 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
AVES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
|
Hurricane Maria Update Statement
|
Issued at 1000 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017
000
WTNT65 KNHC 201352
TCUAT5
Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1000 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017
...1000 AM AST POSITION UPDATE...
...CENTER OF MARIA OVER NORTHERN PUERTO RICO...
A weather station near Arecibo, Puerto Rico, recently reported a
sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a wind gust of 108 mph (174
km/h).
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM AST...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 66.4W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF ARECIBO PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.40 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Brennan
|
Hurricane Maria Graphics
|
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 12:02:25 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2017 09:30:51 GMT
|
Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.
|
|
Issued at 858 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017
|
Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.
|
|
Issued at 0 |
