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Atlantic Tropical Storm Activity
...EDOUARD RACING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...
As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Jul 6
the center of Edouard was located near 40.8, -50.0
with movement NE at 37 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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July 2020
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Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
000
ABNT20 KNHC 061746
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles south-southeast of
Newfoundland.
A low pressure system is centered inland over southern Georgia.
The low is forecast to move northeastward, near the coast of the
Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic during the next few days. No
development is expected while the low remains over land, however
some development will be possible if the system moves over water
later this week. Regardless of development, the low is forecast to
produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding
across portions of the southeast U.S. during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
A fast-moving tropical wave continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands. This disturbance has not become any better organized today,
and development is becoming unlikely. The wave is forecast to move
through the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and could produce locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds on some of those islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
...EDOUARD RACING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...
As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Jul 6
the center of Edouard was located near 40.8, -50.0
with movement NE at 37 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020
208 WTNT35 KNHC 061442 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Edouard Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 ...EDOUARD RACING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.8N 50.0W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was located near latitude 40.8 North, longitude 50.0 West. Edouard is moving toward the northeast near 37 mph (59 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast before Edouard is forecast to become post-tropical later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 06 2020
618 WTNT25 KNHC 061441 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 1500 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 50.0W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 32 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 50.0W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 51.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 43.2N 44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 46.7N 37.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 50.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 53.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.8N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020
000 WTNT45 KNHC 061442 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 Visible satellite imagery continues to show that the low-level center of Edouard is exposed to the southwest of the area of deep convection. A frontal boundary is approaching the system from the northwest and there are signs that Edouard's extratropical transition has begun. Subjective and objective intensity estimates from TAFB and UW/CIMSS are between 35-45 kt, and the initial intensity has been raised to 40 kt based on the above, and the rapid forward speed of the cyclone. ASCAT data should provide a better assessment of Edouard's intensity very shortly. Edouard is racing northeastward with an initial estimate of 055/32 kt. The cyclone should continue on this general speed and heading over the next day or two as it remains embedded within an area of strong southwesterly flow. The updated NHC track forecast is again near the middle of the guidance envelope and very similar to the previous advisory. Cooler waters, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, and the approaching frontal zone should cause Edouard to complete its extratropical transition within the next 6-12 hours. Little change in strength is expected as this occurs. Gradual weakening should begin on Tuesday, and the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate within a frontal zone over the north Atlantic in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 40.8N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 43.2N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 07/1200Z 46.7N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/0000Z 50.0N 29.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/1200Z 53.0N 20.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 06 2020
000
FONT15 KNHC 061442
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020
1500 UTC MON JUL 06 2020
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 40.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Jul 2020 14:43:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Jul 2020 15:24:46 GMT