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Atlantic Tropical Storm Activity
...CLAUDETTE FORECAST TO RE-STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT EXITS THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 the center of Claudette was located near 34.2, -82.5 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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June 2021
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The Weather Network
Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201701
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Claudette, located inland over east-central Georgia.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Brown
...CLAUDETTE FORECAST TO RE-STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT EXITS THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 the center of Claudette was located near 34.2, -82.5 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

000
WTNT33 KNHC 202031
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Claudette Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021
 
...CLAUDETTE FORECAST TO RE-STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT EXITS THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 82.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM W OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere across the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Claudette was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 82.5 West.
The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28
km/h).  An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with some
increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the system should continue to move across
portions of the southeastern U.S. through tonight, move over the
coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday,
and pass near or just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Some re-strengthening is expected tonight, and Claudette is
forecast to become a tropical storm again late tonight or early
Monday over eastern North Carolina.  Some additional strengthening 
is possible over the western Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday.
Claudette is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Tuesday 
afternoon or Tuesday night. 

The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is
1009 mb (29.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL:  Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches
across North Florida, southeastern Georgia, central and coastal
South Carolina into central to eastern North Carolina through Monday
morning.  Flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts, as well as
isolated minor river flooding are possible across these areas.
 
Storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated 15 inch amounts
was observed in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle.
 
For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the
WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
NC/VA Border to Cape Lookout, NC...1-3 ft
Cape Lookout, NC to Little River Inlet, SC...1-2 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area late tonight or early Monday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and Monday.
 
TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening across 
parts of the central and eastern Carolinas.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021

000
WTNT23 KNHC 202031
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032021
2100 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N  82.5W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  70 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N  82.5W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N  83.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 35.0N  79.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.9N  74.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 150SE  50SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.3N  69.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE  70SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 42.4N  63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE  90SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 45.5N  58.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N  82.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021

000
WTNT43 KNHC 202032
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021
 
Satellite and surface observations show that Claudette's circulation
has become elongated today and that there is a fairly large area of
light winds near the center.  Observations along the southeastern
U.S. coast and over coastal sections of the Carolinas indicate that
the winds have increased somewhat but these data still support an
initial intensity of 25 kt.   As Claudette approaches the coast 
overnight and Monday morning, restrengthening is anticipated, and 
the cyclone is forecast to regain tropical storm status before it 
exits the coast of North Carolina. Some additional strengthening 
is forecast while Claudette moves over the warm waters of the Gulf 
Stream and the shear remains low.  The system should become 
extratropical Tuesday afternoon when it passes near Nova Scotia, 
and the global models indicate that it will degenerate into a 
trough of low pressure by Wednesday morning.  The NHC intensity 
foreast is close to the intensity model consensus and follows the 
trends of the various global models.
 
The depression is moving east-northeastward at around 15 kt.  A
mid-latitude trough that is moving into the central United States
should continue to steer Claudette east-northeastward to
northeastward over the next couple of days.  The center of Claudette
is forecast to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina Monday
morning, then pass well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday
night, and be near or just southeast of Nova Scotia on Tuesday.
The dynamical model guidance remains in very good agreement and the
NHC forecast again lies near the various consensus aids.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash 
flooding from North Florida and southeastern Georgia into the 
Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream 
flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 
 
2. Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening across parts of the 
central and eastern Carolinas.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 34.2N  82.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 35.0N  79.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  21/1800Z 36.9N  74.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  22/0600Z 39.3N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 42.4N  63.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  23/0600Z 45.5N  58.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021

000
FONT13 KNHC 202031
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032021               
2100 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  22(26)   X(26)   X(26)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X  16(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X  24(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X  28(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  6   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  2  17(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X  32(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34 18   9(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  3  28(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  1  21(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  2  22(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  7  14(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 11  10(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  8   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
FLORENCE SC    34 24   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34 10   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 12   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  9   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
Tropical Depression Claudette 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 20:50:00 GMT

Tropical Depression Claudette 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 20:50:00 GMT
Issued at 443 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021
Issued at 450 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021