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364
ABNT20 KNHC 181732
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Joyce, located several hundred miles south of the
Azores. The NOAA Weather Prediction Center has issued the
final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence, located just
off the coast of New England.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

...JOYCE STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 18 the center of Joyce was located near 31.6, -27.4 with movement S at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 18 2018

982 
WTNT35 KNHC 181430
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 18 2018

...JOYCE STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 27.4W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce
was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 27.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
will gradually turn to the southwest and west over the next couple
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple days, and
Joyce is forecast to become a remnant low tomorrow.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Lamers/Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018

879 
WTNT25 KNHC 181429
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102018
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N  27.4W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 185 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  60SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N  27.4W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  27.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 30.6N  27.7W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.9N  28.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 29.4N  29.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.0N  31.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N  27.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LAMERS/BLAKE

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 18 2018

960 
WTNT45 KNHC 181431
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 18 2018

Earlier in the morning, the low-level center of Joyce became
decoupled from a small area of deeper convection. However, another
convective burst has recently developed after 12Z closer to the
low-level center.  The initial intensity of Joyce was held at 30 kt
based on a recent ASCAT pass, which showed an area of 25-30 kt winds
on the north side of the circulation. The number of wind retrievals
close to 30 kt was rather limited, so Joyce's winds should decrease
below 30 kt when it eventually loses deep convection.  The
depression is in an environment with strong westerly vertical wind
shear (30-40 kt) and marginal sea surface temperatures (around 25C),
and thus the primary forecast question is when Joyce will succumb to
the relatively hostile environment, lose deep convection and become
a remnant low. The GFS and ECMWF models both show some deep
convection lingering into tomorrow before warming upper-level
temperatures and increasingly dry air aloft kill off any remaining
convection. Therefore, the 12-hour forecast point maintains tropical
depression status, and the 24-hour forecast point indicates a
post-tropical system.

The initial motion of Joyce is now more southerly (185 degrees at 7
kt), and it will begin to turn increasingly to the southwest and
west as the central Atlantic ridge builds to the north. The new
forecast track is essentially an update of the previous one, which
was close to the TVCA and HCCA consensus models. Minor adjustments
were made in the first 24 hours to account for a slightly faster
observed motion to the south in the past 6-12 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 31.6N  27.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 30.6N  27.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 29.9N  28.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0000Z 29.4N  29.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1200Z 29.0N  31.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Lamers/Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018

230 
FONT15 KNHC 181431
PWSAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102018
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC TUE SEP 18 2018

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

$$
FORECASTER LAMERS/BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Sep 2018 14:51:16 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Sep 2018 15:27:54 GMT