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Atlantic Tropical Storm Activity
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE SYSTEM STRONGER... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 the center of Sixteen was located near 25.9, -90.0 with movement NE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Find more about Weather in Tampa, FL
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Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Outlook Image
NHC Atlantic
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181107
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Sixteen are issued under WMO header
WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162019)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE SYSTEM STRONGER... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 the center of Sixteen was located near 25.9, -90.0 with movement NE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Public Advisory Number 5
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

000
WTNT31 KNHC 181449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE SYSTEM STRONGER...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.0W
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 25.9 North, longitude 90.0 West. The system is moving
toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a turn toward
the east-northeast by early Monday. On the forecast track, the
system will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and tonight
and move inland across portions of the southeastern United States on
Saturday and Sunday. The system is forecast to move offshore of the
coast of North Carolina by late Sunday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected later today, with
weakening forecast after the system moves inland.

The disturbance is expected to become a tropical or subtropical
storm later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
mainly to the northeast and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft
Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area by later today and this evening, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible tonight and early Saturday
near the Florida Gulf Coast from the central panhandle to the
western peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 5
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

000
WTNT21 KNHC 181446
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019
1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  90.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  90.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N  91.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 27.8N  88.0W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.9N  85.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  45SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.2N  82.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.4N  78.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 37.0N  71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 37.0N  69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N  90.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 5
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

000
WTNT41 KNHC 181455
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

The satellite presentation of the system features an area of very
deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80C within the eastern
part of a rather broad and elongated surface circulation seen in
visible satellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found
flight-level winds as high as 72 kt and SFMR winds of 45-50 kt
southeast of the ill-defined center, and based on these data the
initial intensity is set to 50 kt. The NOAA aircraft also measured a
pressure of around 1001 mb. While the cyclone has deepened, the
circulation is still quite elongated and not well defined, so the
system is maintained as a Potential Tropical Cyclone for now.

The global models continue to indicate that the circulation will
consolidate and the system will strengthen some during the next 12
hours or so, as the low-level circulation will be overtaken by an
upper-level trough currently situated over southwest Louisiana. The
system is still expected to become a tropical or subtropical storm
later today, with the exact phase dependent on the timing of the
circulation improving and the interaction with the upper trough.
Once the system moves inland, it should become extratropical by 36
hours and slowly weaken once it moves offshore of the Carolinas by
72-96 hours before dissipating by day 5. The new NHC intensity
forecast is adjusted upward from the previous one through 24 hours
based on the initial intensity and allows for the possibility of at
least some additional strengthening later today.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 055/19 given the lack of
a well-defined center. The track model guidance remains in good
agreement on the system moving quickly northeastward toward the
northeastern Gulf Coast during the next 24 hours as it interacts
with the upper trough. After moving inland, a northeastward motion
is forecast to continue until after 48 hours, when an east-
northeastward motion is expected, which will take the circulation
offshore over the Atlantic by 72 hours. The new NHC track forecast
is similar to, but a bit to the south of the previous one and is
close to the various track consensus aids.

Regardless of the exact evolution of the system, portions of the
northeastern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong
winds, locally heavy rains, and storm surge later today and
Saturday. Similar impacts are expected across portions of the
Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States Saturday and
Sunday.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
up to 5 feet above ground level beginning later today along the
Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely later today and tonight
along portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical
storm warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and
intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area,
especially east of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and
eastern Gulf Coast and the southeast United States coast through
Saturday night.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 25.9N  90.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  19/0000Z 27.8N  88.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 24H  19/1200Z 29.9N  85.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 32.2N  82.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  20/1200Z 34.4N  78.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  21/1200Z 37.0N  71.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/1200Z 37.0N  69.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

000
FONT11 KNHC 181449
PWSAT1
                                                                    
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN                                  
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019               
1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN WAS       
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   6(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  23(34)   X(34)   X(34)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  13(30)   X(30)   X(30)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)  18(39)   X(39)   X(39)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)  15(38)   X(38)   X(38)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)   8(33)   X(33)   X(33)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  26(27)   6(33)   X(33)   X(33)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  34(36)   5(41)   X(41)   X(41)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
BALD HEAD ISL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  20(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  12(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  31(33)   3(36)   X(36)   X(36)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  36(39)   3(42)   X(42)   X(42)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  31(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   9( 9)  28(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   1( 1)  17(18)  21(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   1( 1)  12(13)   7(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   2( 2)  25(27)  12(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   5( 5)  22(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   8( 8)  36(44)   2(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   8( 8)  15(23)   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   6( 6)  21(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X  11(11)  17(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   4( 4)   6(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   7( 7)   9(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   7( 7)   5(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  3  27(30)   6(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X  42(42)  27(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   4( 4)   7(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  1  45(46)  23(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   4( 4)   6(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
APALACHICOLA   34 17  68(85)   2(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
APALACHICOLA   50  X  15(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34 30  54(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X  12(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34 18  66(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X  16(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 14  41(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  1   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  1   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34 82  12(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  4  21(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34 77   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Graphics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 14:50:15 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 14:50:15 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 09:45:03 GMT

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 14:51:26 GMT

Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued at 516 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL
Issued at 517 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 /417 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/

Local Statement for New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA
Issued at 513 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Local Statement for Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL
Issued at 519 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

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